Disclosures

Last updated: April 19, 2026

Meridian Quantitative, Ltd. ("Meridian") publishes its forecasts, track record, and calibration metrics in the interest of transparency. The disclosures below set out the limits of what those numbers mean and the conflicts we actively manage.

1. Not investment advice

Meridian is a quantitative advisory firm. It is not registered with the SEC, FCA, or any other financial regulator as an investment adviser, broker-dealer, or futures commission merchant. Nothing on this Site or in any Meridian deliverable constitutes an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell any security, derivative, digital asset, or other financial instrument. Readers should not rely on Meridian output as a substitute for their own judgement or for advice from a licensed professional.

2. Forecasts are probabilistic

Published probabilities, confidence intervals, and scenarios are model-derived estimates. They will be wrong in individual cases by design. We score ourselves on calibration — not on headline accuracy — and we report both our wins and our misses.

3. Track record

• All publicly reported Brier scores, log-loss figures, and resolution counts are calculated on timestamped forecasts that were published before the underlying event resolved.
• No forecast is removed from the track record retroactively. Methodology, question wording, and resolution criteria are available on request.
• Past calibration does not guarantee future calibration.

4. Conflicts of interest

Meridian may be engaged by multiple clients with opposing views on the same question. We manage this through information barriers between engagement teams and by disclosing material conflicts in individual engagement letters. Where independence cannot be preserved, we decline the engagement.

Meridian does not take directional positions in the markets it forecasts on its own account. Employees are subject to a personal-trading policy designed to prevent front-running of client work.

5. Third-party data

Our models rely on data from public agencies (e.g. NOAA, IMF, NASA, WHO, NORAD, ECMWF), commercial vendors, and proprietary feeds. We do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of third-party data, and errors in upstream sources may propagate into our forecasts.

6. Forward-looking statements

Statements about future events, probabilities, or outcomes are forward-looking and subject to revision without notice. Meridian undertakes no obligation to update published forecasts beyond the cadence described in the engagement or publication itself.

7. Contact

Questions about these disclosures or our methodology: research@meridianmarkets.xyz.